Replication
Every estimate in the book comes out of a public pipeline. The code, the intermediate steps, and the output tables are on GitHub under CC BY 4.0 — including the tables that did not support their hypothesis.
What is in it
Eleven numbered scripts run in order, from raw SPSS conversion through to the robustness battery. The numbering is the execution order.
| Script | Does |
|---|---|
00_convert_spss.py | Converts the raw SPSS files to Parquet |
01_inspect_data.py | Inspection and data-quality checks |
02_build_analytic_file.py | Merges WVS, EVS, and ERT into the analytic dataset |
03_agp_alignment_prep.py | Prepares the input for the alignment CFA in Mplus |
04_agp_scores.py | Reads the Mplus output and builds country-wave AGP scores |
05_ch4_cross_national.py | Chapter 4: the cross-national AGP distribution |
06_ch5_mechanisms.py | Chapter 5: individual-level mechanism tests |
07_ch6_hazard_models.py | Chapter 6: AGP against autocratization hazard |
08_ch7_forecasting.py | Chapter 7: the ten-year forecast |
09_ch8_ebb.py | Chapter 8: the incidence-based ebb measure |
10_ch9_robustness.py | Chapter 9: the thirty-one specification tests |
Alongside them: results/tables/ holds the publication tables as CSV — country rankings, regional means, the mechanism models, the primary hazard estimates, the ten-year forecasts, the ebb countries and correlates, and the full robustness grid. results/figures/ holds the figures as published. docs/data_sources.md carries the dataset citations and download instructions, and docs/mplus_alignment/ the Mplus syntax for the alignment CFA.
What is not in it
The raw survey and regime files are not redistributed. Each archive has its own terms, and each must be downloaded from its source. The versions the book uses are these.
| Dataset | Version | Source |
|---|---|---|
| WVS Integrated Trend File | v4.1 | worldvaluessurvey.org |
| WVS Wave 7 | v6.0 | worldvaluessurvey.org |
| EVS/WVS Joint File | v5.0 | GESIS ZA7503 |
| EVS Trend File | v3.0.0 | GESIS ZA7503 |
| V-Dem Country-Year | v14 | v-dem.net |
| V-Dem Episodes of Regime Transformation | v16 | v-dem.net |
The alignment step needs Mplus. Everything downstream of 04_agp_scores.py runs on Python; see requirements.txt.
Citation
The repository carries a CITATION.cff file, so GitHub will generate a formatted citation for the archive. For the book itself:
Molnar, D. R. (2026). Demanding Strongmen: Values, Insecurity, and the Global Dynamics of Authoritarianism. Longview, WA: Shoreline Publishing Group. ISBN 979-8-18609-735-8.
Replication, validation, and extension are all welcome, and disagreement is more useful when it can point at a line of code.